Be that as it may, the putter has not stopped him from posting three top-30 finishes over his last five starts. Shriners: Emiliano Grillo. At Bay Hill, course history has proven more repeatable than just about any other course on the PGA TOUR schedule. Atlantic Sun Tournament Odds: Liberty The Clear-Cut Favorite, 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Tournament Preview: Everything You Need To Know About Bay Hill. Gdula: Keegan Bradley (75-1, FanDuel) Bradleys number on FanDuel Sportsbook is a lot longer than youll see in other places. Tee times in this area. One of McClure's favorite prop bet picks this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 is veteran Jason Day to finish in the top-20 of the final leaderboard at +125 odds (risk $100 to win $125). CJ Cup: Matt Fitzpatrick. As for Conners, hes been somewhat shockingly bad of late, most noticeably at Riviera where he lost four strokes tee-to-green, something he hasnt done since the Memorial in June of 2021. Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Sahith Theegala. List ranks top-20 in many of the key categories for the demanding test in store at Bay Hill, including Driving Distance, SG: OTT, Prox 200+ and Par-4: 450-500. For a deeper dive into the course, read my WM Phoenix Open preview. Sentry TOC: Cameron Young. PGA TOUR Golf Sleepers: 4 Potential WM Phoenix Open Longshot Picks Golf News Written By John Haslbauer on February 7, 2023 The greatest party in golf is Here are your options. Now covering the sport from a broader perspective, McDonald still likes to dip his toes into the betting pools on a weekly basis on the PGA Tour. Hes riding a super-hot putter and is the most overvalued of the favorites, per my model. And youll find few whove shown more consistency here than Bradley. Standing just under 7,500 yards, Bay Hill presents similar challenges we come to expect in a major championship venue. Kirk will take home the top Like comment Flip One of the shortest hitters on TOUR, hell enjoy the added distance boost in store at elevation in TPC Scottsdales firm and fast conditions. There is no one way to attack TPC Scottsdale, however a profile of elite ball striking has been the common thread amongst contenders here over the years. The Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 field features 44 of the world's top 50 golfers, and they are in for a difficult test. A good way to hedge that is by employing him in OAD. 1 Jon Rahm leads a stacked field that includes 23 of the top 25 players in the Official World Golf Ranking. WMPO: Sungjae Im. February 28, 2023 12:30 pm ET. Zozo: Hideki Matsuyama. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. All betting content is intended for an audience ages 21+. Sentry TOC: Xander Schauffele. With the Phoenix Open open complete, the stars of the PGA Tour head to Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles this week for the 2023 Genesis Invitational, where Overall, Im building my player pool this week around elite ball strikers who are reliable scramblers around the green with proven history at this event or other comp courses. The expert's two other longshots -- Austin Smotherman (65-1) and Hayden Buckley (80-1) -- both finished in the top 26. WMPO: Scottie Scheffler. If I was designing a golf course specifically for Cameron Youngs skill-set, it would look a whole lot like Bay Hill, as the 26-year-old remains one of the most dominant drivers of the ball in the world and an excellent long iron player. Gdula: Max Homa (20-1, FanDuel) I hate rooting against Max, but his odds are to the point where hes shorter than a lot of names Id rather take. Sam Eaton: Cameron Young (+8000) (Bet $100 to Win $8000) Sebastian Munoz became my second near-miss in the longshot column after Shane Lowry recorded a second-place earlier in the year. Other top contenders in the 2023 Arnold Palmer field include McIlroy (19-2), Scheffler (11-1), Max Homa (19-1), Collin Morikawa (21-1), Justin Thomas (23-1), Xander Shop the best odds for PGA TOUR golf sleepers and more highly-touted players across sportsbooks here, including for top 10, top 20, etc. READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem. He lost three strokes on approach at Riviera, a trend that has become more common for him than in any other point in his career. As the elevated events have proven thus far in 2023, these loaded fields do not bode well for the outright prospects of longshots. (Pat Mayo also had runner-up Eric Cole as a +900 top-10 bet.) Sentry TOC: Patrick Cantlay. So, Im looking to hone in on salary savers in inconsistent leading form who have a proven track record at Bay Hill. Now lets dig into some longshots. Note: prices listed Hennessey, Golf Digest: Rory McIlroy (+110) over Jon Rahm (PointsBet) Rorys strokes-gained numbers at Bay Hill are insanehes gained nearly 75 strokes to the field in his eight appearances here. It is an attractive, rolling course that is well maintained with well-mowed and Shane Lowry of Ireland tees off on the 3rd hole during the continuation of Round Two on Day Three of the Hero Dubai Desert Classic at Emirates That may not sound like much, but for this price, that combination of tee-to-green consistency and course history prowess make a great formula for a top-40 push. Another week, another punt on Byeong-hun An. The PGA Tour schedule is full of peaks and valleys. Weve been on a heater in the matchup and top-10 markets, going up more than 27 units this season. As the Florida swing continues, the PGA Tour heads to Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the third designated event in four weeks. Scroll down to see who we like this week at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. WebSPRING SALE: All full size roll styles on sale for $29.95 each Limited Time FREE U.S. After a disappointing finish at the Memorial earlier this month, Conners has a great opportunity to make up for missing the cut at last years U.S. Open. Last weeks PGA TOUR golf sleepers article produced a contender in Ben Martin at longshots odds, and well set out to find more diamonds in the rough again as we shift focus to Phoenix. Golf News Written By John Haslbauer on February 28, 2023 For the third time in four weeks, all of the PGA TOURs best have assembled for an elevated event, Zalatoris has spoken only about the fact that his favorite style of golf is U.S. Open conditions, and with rock-hard greens and extremely thick rough, Bay Hill is about as close to a U.S.-Open-like setup well see all season. Four of the previous five champions have won with scores around 21- to 22-under par. CJ Cup: Tyrrell Hatton. 2 Rory McIlroy at +1000. Zozo: Sungjae Im. For a deeper dive into the course, read myArnold Palmer Invitational preview. Gehman: Sahith Theegala (+100) over Shane Lowry (DraftKings) Theegala is getting more consistent as a professional, making the cut in nine straight events while earning four top-10s in the process. As well as contributing to Golf Digest, Andy is also a data analyst and writer for RickRunGood.com, where he covers PGA Tour betting and daily fantasy. Ill always look Conners way at a ball-strikers course, as the Canadian ranks top-15 in both SG: OTT and SG: APP. After starting out the season on a high note, the two-time PGA Tour winner looked downright beat the past two weeks, failing to finish inside the top-40 in back-to-back weeks. Scottie Scheffler looks to defend his title at Bay Hill and is searching for his second win of 2023. Hahn enters this week in the midst of an 8-event stretch in which hes gained strokes on approach. The expert also just missed a MASSIVE 130-1 score at the Sony Open when Hayden Buckley finished as runner-up. While Fowler didnt pull off the victory, he played quite well, outperforming his long odds to finish the tournament at 10 under, nine shots off Scottie Schefflers winning score and good enough for a T10, which means if you bet on him to finish in the top 10 as we did, you made a little money. None of us trade notes before the week but weve all arrived at the same conclusion in regards to a particular Wake Forest Demon Deacon at an event with the most iconic Wake Forest alum in the tournament name. For one thing, it's rather hilly, a rarity in Florida (although not in the Orlando market) and dotted with sinkhole ponds incorporated in the design in dramatic ways. Its worth noting that Day has played more rounds than both of those guys. Defending tournament champion Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and current No. Big Shot Bob and another expert contact hitter are among Paulie's longshot options for Southern Hills and the 2022 Pendrith is one of eight players in the field to rank top 15 in both Driving Distance and SG: OTT. WebChris Kirk captured his first PGA Tour title since 2015, outlasting 34-year-old rookie Eric Cole in a sudden-death playoff. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Jon Rahm (+650, DraftKings) Can you stop taking the fun out of outright golf betting, Jon Rahm? The event tees off Thursday, and Rahm is the 7-1 favorite in the latest 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Add in Gdula and Stephen Hennesseys Tony Finau (16-1) winner at the Houston Open in the Fall and that gives the panel four outright hits on the 2022-23 season. And which golfer in the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 field could bring a massive payday of well over 80-1? Caddie: Max Homa (+130) over Scottie Scheffler (DraftKings) Homas ball-striking is in an elite category right now, and theres no reason to believe he shouldnt keep up his hot form. Latest Pre-Live FanDuel Massachusetts Promo: $100 Instantly! Gehman: Keegan Bradley (75-1, FanDuel) Bradley putted himself out of Los Angeles, losing nearly four strokes on the greens over just two rounds, resulting in an MC. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Keegan Bradley (+650, Bet365) Keegan hasnt missed a cut at Bay Hill in his 10 most recent appearances at Bay Hill, which includes four finishes of 11th or better. Hes not backing down. Scotts last four starts at Riviera look like this: T4, T38, 1 and T7. The 2013 Masters champions odds-to-win the Genesis are +5500, which are better odds than you usually will find among our long-shot picks. Im not going to stand here and pretend Im not terrified of Luke Lists putting prospects this week, considering he has now gone 18 consecutive events since he last gained on the greens. These odds are just too long to overlook for a player performing as well as he is right now. Christopher Powers, Golf Digest staff writer: Collin Morikawa (21-1, FanDuel) As much as Id love to make this a consensus Willy Z week, I have to stick with Hes appeared at this event each year since 2013, making the cut a perfect 10 times with four top-11 finishes over that stretch. Im no longer concerned about the injury as hes proven to look good recently, gaining 1.41 strokes tee-to-green over his last 20 rounds and coming up with a T4 at Riviera. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. OVC Tournament Odds: Just How Vulnerable Is Morehead State? Honda: Chris Kirk. RELATED: Phil Mickelson drops to depressingly low standing in the Official World Golf Ranking. (Photo by Luke Walker/Getty Images), Back Shohei Ohtani, Japan in World Baseball Classic futures market. WebThe 9-hole China Creek Golf Course in Arlington, OR is a municipal golf course that opened in 2003. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. It seemed like the whole world was betting him at every turn. Looking at past winners, the average winning odds of the last five winners is +15900, with Jim Herman being the longest in 2020 at +60000 and Henrik Stenson having the shortest odds in 2017 at +1400. Click on the odds anywhere below to bet now on the best available prices in your state. Jon Rahm is the betting favorite this week at +700, just ahead of Rory McIlroy at +950 and Scottie Scheffler at +1000. Learn about the best sports betting sites. Fax: (541) 454-2753. Hes a major champion, a WGC winner (remember those?) Keith Mitchell has grabbed two top fives in his last three starts. Genesis: Justin Thomas. That continues a streak that started with Brandon Gdula correctly predicting Scottie Schefflers win at the WM Phoenix Open (13-1) and Rick Gehman hitting Jon Rahm at the Genesis Invitational (+750). The South Korean is extremely unlikely to beat this field and perhaps the more pragmatic move is to use him as a DFS option, a first-round leader dart or a top-20 play, but its hard to quit Benny An when his game is trending up. Hennessey: Keith Mitchell This is a bolder call, but I can afford to be a little bold after getting a win from Chris Kirk last week. Stats pulled across Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted. The content on this site is for entertainment and educational purposes only. The short game wont be an issue, and with the expected blustery conditions, Fleetwood is primed to notch his fourth top 10 at Bay Hill in seven starts. Poston. After two ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL ODDS. The Masters - Golf: Long shots have serious Augusta chances. (Photo: Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via AP Images). Wish it wouldve been his win at the Genesis but I still think he has win equity again this week and Im ready to burn him as a OaD play this week at Bay Hill. Speaking of patterns, how about the prices on Lowry lately? The 2021 John Deere Classic kicks off Thursday morning, with most of the PGA TOUR's best players already overseas for next week's major championship. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). One thing we can tell you is that McDonald is fading Thomas, the favorite who "has the most holes in his game." One of the TOURs most iconic stops, Colonial is a par 70 Last weeks champion and new World No. Big South Tournament Odds: UNC Asheville, Longwood Knotted Atop Betting Market. Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. Having missed only one cut over the last calendar year, Pendrith will be on my outright card and a core DFS play for me this week. Sanderson Farms Championship: Denny McCarthy. Hes third in weighted SG/approach over the past year, fourth in wSG/off the tee and 11th in par-5 scoring, per RickRunGood.com (weighted strokes-gained numbers factors in field strength). Still, it was a profitable week at the Honda and we move forward. Hoffman will assuredly not find himself on my outright card this week. Full Leaderboard . Additionally, Youngs short game has been in the toilet since the calendar flipped to 2023. For our complete review, visit Bay Hill's Places to Play page here. Justin Thomas enters play in the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard at Bay Hill Club & Lodge with +2500 odds to win after a 20th-place Were always looking for courses which wont require the winner to breach 20 under, and Bay Hill certainly qualifies. Follow him on Twitter: @RickRunGood. Since, hes picked up some additional confidence and experience on long, difficult courses, playing in his first Presidents Cup at Quail Hollow. But before we down our tools for the week, look at the odds of the most recent winners of the Genesis Invitational. READ MORE: Back Shohei Ohtani, Japan in World Baseball Classic futures market. I think in what has been a battle of titans early in the year, Rory puts his hat in the ring with a win. Powers, Golf Digest: Keegan Bradley (-120) over Corey Conners (DraftKings) Keegans Bay Hill record is as good as anybodys in this field not named Rory McIlroy, and hes coming in in fine form. John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. Hes been electric at Bay Hill, teeing it up 11 times. Thats remarkable and, while it has made his outright odds tough to stomach, I think that the Top 5 odds are more than palatable at this price given that hes done that at an 80% rate so far this season. Shipping on most Impact Label products You read that correctly: Not only did he finish T4 last year, but he also won the Genesis Invitational in 2020. 4 Potential PGA TOUR Golf Sleeper Picks: BMW Championship. His consistent ball striking and history in these conditions make for a high floor and solid placement consideration this week. Then it just comes down to the putter. Here are the stats you should be paying attention to. https://golfweek.usatoday.com/lists/arnold-palmer-invitational-odds-sleeper-picks-tommy-fleetwood/, Mexico, Caribbean, Atlantic islands, Central America, Top 50 Classic Courses in Great Britain & Ireland, Top 50 Modern Courses in Great Britain & Ireland, PGA Tour approves radical schedule changes, reducing fields in elevated events and ending cuts, Drivers used by PGA Tour pros ranked in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. Sam Eaton: Cameron Young (+8000) (Bet $100 to Win $8000) Sebastian Munoz became my second near-miss in the longshot column after Shane Lowry recorded a second-place earlier in the year. Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer, California residents do not sell my data request. To put that into perspective, thats better than Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa have ever recorded in an individual tournament. Note:All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Now were getting a little bold. I love buying in on players that are coming off a week where they gained strokes in all four major categories, which is the exact type of well-rounded approach that is extremely necessary at a course like Bay Hill. Mayo: Tom Kim (45-1, DraftKings) While hell likely be my pick to win next week, Kims odds have simply slipped too far for his upside this week. and he won the 2022 BMW PGA Championship over Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm, who both happen to be in the field this week. MLB Odds: Braves 2B Ozzie Albies A Most Hits Longshot Candidate? Its a good number if nothing else. Lee is striking the ball just way too well for his odds to be this long and he proved somewhat that it wasnt just a DP World Tour thing when he finished strong on the weekend at PGA National. ESPN+. The Arnold Palmer Invitational The PGA TOUR heads back to Texas this week for the 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial. RSM Classic: Brian Harman. Jon Rahm (+750)Rory McIlroy (+1000)Scottie Scheffler (+1000)Justin Thomas (+1600)Xander Schauffele (+1600)Max Homa (+1800)Tony Finau (+1800)Collin Morikawa (+2200)Patrick Cantlay (+2500)Sungjae Im (+2500)Sam Burns (+2800)Viktor Hovland (+2800)Cameron Young (+3300)Hideki Matsuyama (+4000)Jason Day (+4000)Jordan Spieth (+4000)Matt Fitzpatrick (+4000)Tom Kim (+4000)Tyrrell Hatton (+4000)Will Zalatoris (+4000). As the Florida swing continues, the PGA Tour heads to Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the third designated event in four weeks. Powers, Golf Digest: Shane Lowry (65-1, FanDuel) Last week he was the toast of the town as the second favorite, and he wound up finishing top five. Based on the odds, lets look at some golf 21+: TheLines.com and all content herein is intended for audiences 21 years and older. I expect Im to miss the cut this week, which would likely be in his best interest anyway to get a couple days off before the Players Championship next week. Honda: Chris Kirk. Start the Golf Season off right with InsideGOLF ($100 value - just $20). Mayakoba: Thomas Detry. Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. Our outright panelwhich consists of a caddie reporting anonymously from the grounds at Bay Hill; Pat Mayo of DraftKings and FantasyNational.com; Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel; Rick Gehman of RickRunGood.com; Andy Lack of RRG and his Inside Golf Podcast; and your two authorsis all aboard the Willy Z train. Lack: Hideki Matsuyama (66-1, BetMGM) This is a pure number play for me, as in my opinion, Hideki Matsuyama is a bonafide top-20 player in the world, despite the betting markets not treating him like one. AT&T Pebble Beach: Maverick McNealy. Keegan Bradley a sleeper no more? McDonald takes a measured approach to his outright selections and is having a profitable 2022-23 season. Stats pulled across Last 24 Rounds unless otherwise noted. No one should expect to make money from the picks and predictions discussed on this website. Yes, this is a tough field, but Lowry is not the type you write off in these spots. Hopefully its one of his hot weeks. No, he is not a tout. February 28, 2023 12:30 pm ET. Sungjae Im is one of the few players in this field who is teeing it up for the fourth week in a row. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. Given that he also has a win and a T2 in his past three starts here, I think he asserts himself on the leaderboard this week. The Wake Forest star remains one of the best drivers of the ball on long golf courses, as well as one of the best long iron players in the field. 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